roi-calculator

ROI Calculator

This skill helps you calculate and communicate the return on investment for influencer marketing campaigns using various methodologies appropriate for your goals and available data.

Cross-discipline (paid ads): this is the shared return-math engine for paid ads — [paid-measurement-loop](../../../ad/scale/paid-measurement-loop/SKILL.md), [attribution-reconciler](../../../ad/scale/attribution-reconciler/SKILL.md), and budget-optimizer delegate ROAS/CPA/payback ratios here rather than recomputing them. Save paid runs under memory/ad/roi-calculator/.

Quick Start

Shortest invocation:

Calculate ROI for our influencer campaign: $25K spend, $72K revenue, 2.1M reach

Common scenario — compare methods before reporting:

What's the ROI of our campaign using direct revenue, EMV, and LTV-based methods?

Skill Contract

• Reads: campaign spend breakdown, results data (reach, impressions, engagements, clicks, conversions, revenue, new customers), AOV and repeat-rate data if LTV is in scope, any prior performance output from performance-analyzer.
• Writes: ROI calculation file at memory/influencer/roi-calculator/YYYY-MM-DD-<topic>.md containing direct ROI/ROAS, EMV, cost-efficiency metrics, attribution-modeled revenue, LTV-based ROI, by-influencer ROI, and a summary report block.
• Promotes: only with separate authorization, durable headline numbers with their attribution window, source, and uncertainty; a calculation request alone does not authorize hot-cache writes.
• Done when:
• At least one ROI methodology is computed with the inputs and formula shown.
• Each headline metric is stated against a declared, source-dated comparison target; no universal benchmark is invented.
• A bottom-line assessment (profitable / break-even / loss) and 1-3 recommendations are written.
• Primary next skill: [report-generator](../report-generator/SKILL.md)

Handoff Summary

Emit the standard shape from [skill-contract.md §Handoff Summary Format](../../../references/skill-contract.md).

Data Sources

This family is Tier 1 — it works with no live integrations. Ask the user for spend and results data and compute everything from those inputs. Connectors below can pull the numbers automatically when available:

• ~~social platform analytics — reach, impressions, engagements, video views per platform for EMV and cost-per-metric math.
• ~~ecommerce / analytics — revenue, conversions, link clicks, and AOV for direct ROI and attribution.
• ~~CRM — new-customer counts, repeat-purchase rate, and lifetime value for LTV-based ROI.
• ~~influencer database — per-influencer fees and tier data for by-influencer ROI.

With zero integrations, supply the investment and results tables by hand and the skill still produces every calculation. See [CONNECTORS.md](../../../CONNECTORS.md) for the free/keyless recipe per category.

Instructions

When a user requests ROI calculation, work the steps below. Each step has a fill-in template in [references/roi-templates.md](references/roi-templates.md) — link the step number to its block there.

1. Gather ROI inputs — campaign details, the investment (total spend) table, and the results-data table. ([template](references/roi-templates.md#step-1--roi-calculation-inputs))

1. Calculate direct ROI — Simple ROI = (Revenue − Investment) / Investment × 100; ROAS = Revenue / Investment. State profit and a Profitable/Break-even/Loss assessment. ([template](references/roi-templates.md#step-2--direct-roi-calculation))

1. Calculate Earned Media Value (EMV) — impression-based (Impressions × CPM / 1000) and engagement-based (Engagements × CPE), then average. Flag EMV as directional, not absolute. ([template](references/roi-templates.md#step-3--earned-media-value-emv))

1. Calculate cost-efficiency metrics — CPM, CPR, CPE, CPV, CPC, CPA, and CAC. Compare only against a declared, source-dated target with a compatible market, window, and attribution basis; otherwise report the metric descriptively and mark the comparison pending. ([template](references/roi-templates.md#step-4--cost-efficiency-analysis))

1. Apply attribution modeling — run first-touch, last-touch, linear, time-decay, and position-based; recommend the model that fits the customer journey. ([template](references/roi-templates.md#step-5--attribution-analysis))

1. Calculate customer lifetime value impact — LTV-Based ROI = (New Customers × Avg LTV − Investment) / Investment; project short- vs. long-term and compare customer quality to organic/paid. ([template](references/roi-templates.md#step-6--lifetime-value-analysis))

1. Calculate by-influencer ROI — per-influencer ROI/ROAS rank, investment efficiency, and ROI by tier (macro/micro/nano). ([template](references/roi-templates.md#step-7--influencer-level-roi))

1. Generate the ROI report summary — investment, returns, ROI by methodology, key metrics vs. benchmark, bottom line, and 1-3 recommendations. ([template](references/roi-templates.md#step-8--roi-summary-report))

1. Produce the measured Return (R) evidence for the gate

The financial outputs from steps 1–8 are the campaign's measured Return (R) evidence for STAR: ROI/ROAS read against the declared target (R1) and the alternative-channel baseline (R3), CPE/CPM/CPA benchmarked on a normalized window (R2), KPI attainment versus the pre-registered target (R4), conversions attributed with a stated method and rigor (R5), and incremental impact separated from baseline where measurable (R6). Measured Return exists only at assessment_time: actual; a forecast read has no R1–R6. Label each figure Measured / User-provided / Calculated / Estimated.

Hand this Return evidence to the [creator-content-auditor](../../activate/creator-content-auditor/SKILL.md) gate — it folds R into the full actual STAR run and computes the profile-weighted SQS. This skill does not run the scorer or emit the composite. Unverified conversions emit results-unverified: report R1/R2/R5 as low-confidence and make no attributable-return claims. These financial numbers are consumed as R evidence; they are not themselves an SQS.

For a multi-creator campaign, the gate scores each creator partnership separately; a budget-weighted mean of the per-partnership SQS values may summarize the campaign but never replaces the per-partnership diagnosis. This skill supplies the per-partnership Return evidence; it does not aggregate or roll up a composite.

1. Persist only with permission — save under memory/influencer/roi-calculator/ (or the paid path) only after authorization; request separate authorization for hot-cache promotion.

Example

User: "Calculate ROI for our influencer campaign: $25K spend, $72K revenue, 2.1M reach"

Output:

# ROI Calculation Summary

## Investment & Returns

| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Total Investment | $25,000 |
| Direct Revenue | $72,000 |
| Total Reach | 2,100,000 |

## ROI Results

### Direct ROI
- **Profit**: $47,000
- **ROI**: 188%
- **ROAS**: 2.88:1

For every $1 spent, you generated $2.88 in revenue.

### Earned Media Value
- **EMV** (directional scenario at a declared $8 CPM): $16,800
- **EMV Multiple**: 0.67x

### Cost Efficiency
- **CPM**: $11.90
- **CPA**: Unknown (conversion count was not supplied)

## Assessment: Profitable on the supplied direct-revenue basis

Direct revenue exceeds the supplied investment, but no source-dated peer target or incrementality evidence was provided. Do not infer benchmark outperformance or authorize a scale decision from this read alone; obtain verified conversions, attribution evidence, and the campaign owner's precommitted decision rule first.

The source-dated benchmark evidence template lives in [references/roi-templates.md#benchmark-evidence-template](references/roi-templates.md#benchmark-evidence-template).

Reference Materials

• [references/roi-templates.md](references/roi-templates.md) — fill-in templates for every Instructions step, the worked example, and benchmark evidence inputs.
• [measurement-protocol.md](../../../references/measurement-protocol.md) — read ROI and Return (R) deltas against a control over the readback window; do not over-claim attribution.
• [skill-contract.md](../../../references/skill-contract.md) — shared contract and Handoff Summary format.
• [state-model.md](../../../references/state-model.md) — memory tiers and save-path conventions.
• [CONNECTORS.md](../../../CONNECTORS.md) — free/keyless data recipe per connector category.
• STAR scoring: [star-benchmark.md](../../../references/star-benchmark.md) — the Return (R) dimension this skill's evidence feeds and the profile-weighted SQS the gate computes.
• [performance-analyzer](../performance-analyzer/SKILL.md) — supplies the results data this skill consumes.
• [report-generator](../report-generator/SKILL.md) — wraps these numbers into a full report.
• [budget-optimizer](../../target/budget-optimizer/SKILL.md) — uses ROI output to reallocate spend.
• [campaign-planner](../../target/campaign-planner/SKILL.md) — sets the ROI targets these results are checked against.

Next Best Skill

Primary: [report-generator](../report-generator/SKILL.md) — turn the ROI numbers into a stakeholder-ready report.

Alternates (same Report family):

• [performance-analyzer](../performance-analyzer/SKILL.md) — go back for deeper performance breakdowns if the ROI math exposed gaps.
• [budget-optimizer](../../target/budget-optimizer/SKILL.md) — feed by-influencer and by-tier ROI into the next budget allocation.

Termination note: keep a visited-set of skills invoked this session. If the primary next skill was already run, stop and report the chain complete rather than re-invoking it. Stop after at most 3 hops in a single chain.